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Grading the Biggest Trades of the 2026 NBA Offseason

A reproducible grading system, win-now impact, asset cost and risk, scores six of the summer's biggest NBA trades side by side, from Giannis to Miami to the six-team mega-deal.

by James Harrington July 11, 2026 4 min read
Grading the Biggest Trades of the 2026 NBA Offseason

Photo: Erik Drost, CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons

The 2026 NBA offseason produced more roster earthquakes in six weeks than most leagues see in three years. Giannis Antetokounmpo left Milwaukee for Miami, Jaylen Brown and Paul George swapped conference contenders, Ja Morant left the only franchise he had known, and a six-team trade rewired cap sheets from Dallas to Washington. This piece grades six of those headline trades side by side using one scoring system, so the moves can be compared on equal footing.

How the Grading Works

Each trade is scored across three categories, one to five points apiece, for a maximum of 15. Win-now impact measures how much the deal helps the acquiring team compete immediately. Asset cost measures the draft capital, cap flexibility or young talent surrendered, with a low score meaning a steep price. Risk measures health history, fit and contract term, with a low score flagging real concerns. Totals convert on a fixed scale: 13-15 is an A, 11-12 a B+, 9-10 a B, 7-8 a C+, 5-6 a C, lower a D. That scale keeps every deal in the same frame.

Giannis to Miami: B (10/15)

Milwaukee sent Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bobby Portis to Miami in a blockbuster for Tyler Herro, Kel’el Ware, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Kasparas Jakucionis, three first-round picks (2026, 2031, 2033), a swap and a second-rounder. Impact: 5, a two-time MVP instantly becomes the best player on the floor. Cost: 2, three firsts plus a swap is near the going rate for a top-five talent. Risk: 3, Antetokounmpo played just 36 games last season, and a 31-year-old anchoring a new title push is a real concern. The Heat got better today; the picks will decide whether Milwaukee did too.

Jaylen Brown for Paul George: B (10/15)

Philadelphia sent George and four picks (firsts in 2028 and 2031, two seconds) to Boston for Brown. Impact: 4, Brown finished sixth in last season’s MVP voting and slots next to Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey as a real second star. Cost: 3, real capital, though shedding George’s deal ($54.1 million this year, a $56.6 million option) offsets some of it. Risk: 3, George turns 36 and played just 37 games last season, averaging 17.3 points on an injury- and suspension-shortened schedule, a bounce-back Boston cannot control. Same total as Miami’s deal, for different reasons: production traded for cap and draft relief.

Ja Morant to Portland: C+ (8/15)

Memphis moved Morant to Portland for Jerami Grant, Kris Murray and $1 million in cash. Impact: 3, a dynamic scorer joins a backcourt that already has Jrue Holiday, Damian Lillard and Scoot Henderson. Cost: 3, Grant and Murray are useful role players, so the price was modest. Risk: 2, Morant has played just 79 games over three seasons, and durability caps this grade.

Kessler and Ayton: C+ (8/15)

The Lakers signed and traded for Walker Kessler, sending Utah two unprotected firsts (2031, 2033) and two swaps (2028, 2030) for a four-year, $130 million center, then flipped Deandre Ayton to Washington for Jaden Hardy and two second-rounders. Impact: 4, Los Angeles fixes its center rotation and clears cap room for Quentin Grimes and Sandro Mamukelashvili. Cost: 2, two unprotected firsts and two swaps is steep for a center with no All-Star appearances. Risk: 2, Kessler is coming off surgery for a torn labrum that ended his prior season early.

Julius Randle to Brooklyn: B (10/15)

Minnesota sent Randle and the No. 28 pick to Brooklyn in a three-team deal that rerouted Nic Claxton to Chicago and returned the No. 33 pick plus a trade exception. Impact: 3, Randle averaged 21.1 points last season but shot just 39 percent from the field and 24.4 percent from three across Minnesota’s 12 playoff games. Cost: 4, Minnesota gave up almost nothing beyond a late first, which is why it could re-sign Ayo Dosunmu for five years and $112 million. Risk: 3. This grade is really about Minnesota’s cap relief, and on that front it worked.

The Six-Team Mega-Deal: B (9/15)

Dallas, Detroit, Memphis, Milwaukee, Washington and the Clippers combined ten players and several sign-and-trades, including John Collins to Detroit and Khris Middleton to Washington, into one filing. Impact: 2, no star changed teams; all six clubs are now hard-capped at the first tax apron. Cost: 3, the compensation leaned on second-rounders and swaps rather than premium firsts. Risk: 4, short deals (Collins at three years and roughly $51 million, Middleton at three years and roughly $17.6 million) limit the downside if any piece flops. The least glamorous grade here, but the cleanest mechanics.

The Takeaway

Line up the six grades and a pattern appears. The best marks went to the lowest-risk deals, the Brown-George swap and Minnesota’s Randle salary dump, not the ones with the biggest names attached. Antetokounmpo’s move to Miami remains the offseason’s defining story, and a 10-point B is fair for a superstar trade that also cost three first-round picks and asks an injury-limited star to carry a new franchise. Whether these grades age well is a question for next season, but a transparent scale means anyone can rerun it on the next blockbuster that lands in the Basketball section.

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About the author

James Harrington

James Harrington reports on American football and the numbers behind it, from playoff seeding scenarios to media-rights deals. Twelve seasons of fantasy football taught him humility.

See all articles by James Harrington →
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